One Super Blog Post

After the Steelers beat the Jets and the Packers beat the Bears two weekends ago, Vegas set an early line that had Green Bay favored to win the Super Bowl by 2.5.  Last I checked, the line had jumped to three, meaning more people are taking the Pack to cover that spread than they are the Steel. 

This event matches what are almost certainly the two largest fan bases in all of football (the Cowboys are not candidates because it is unclear whether or not they have any real fans) in what has surely been a boon for the local economy.  I have no doubt the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex can hold its own with most Super Bowl sites, but the area has been dominated with a winter storm all week, something that has surely put a damper on the occasion.  It's not as if Packers and Steelers fans aren't used to the weather, but the scene has once again brought up the argument of whether (no pun intended) or not certain cities are Super Bowl-worthy.  The event has a way of really embarrassing any place that proves it can't handle the situation.  Again, in fairness to DFW, I'm confident that there are enough hotels, bars, taxis, strippers, and unique food joints to handle the world's largest sporting event, but the skies are literally dumping on the whole aura.  This has been a remarkably uneventful Super Bowl week.  The game should always take place in one of our nation's party capitals - Miami, New Orleans, or Las Vegas (Vegas, of course, would need to build a stadium) - areas that almost certainly never have to worry about winter storms (hurricanes and oil spills are another matter).  If there is a chance people can become critically injured by ice falling off the roof of your stadium, then you probably don't need to be hosting the Super Bowl.  With that said, let's get to the game.

The word on the street largely seems to be that the Steelers overachieved a bit to get here, winning two home games in very unconvincing fashion and basically getting lucky by not having to play the Patriots, a team that picked their defense apart earlier in the year.  That may be true, but there's a reason these guys are in the hunt pretty much year after year: they draft so well that it doesn't seem to matter when players get old or get hurt - someone is always willing to step in and perform well.  Their offensive line has been banged up all year but as I said in my last post that shouldn't matter because Ben Roethlisberger actually becomes more effective when he's forced to make plays on the fly.  The absence of center Maurkice Pouncey, however, should be cause for concern.

Jason really doesn't want to see Big Ben win another Super Bowl...

The main reason Pittsburgh is here, of course, is Roethlisberger.  One can never count the Steelers out when that guy is on the field.  He just makes plays.  If he has snap issues with Pouncey being out, I expect his rushing yardage total to go up.  If the Steelers can't run the ball, I expect him to get away from the rush and find his receivers open deep.  I just expect Roethlisberger to do great things. 

(Note: I am definitely among those who are going to be a bit sick if Big Ben leads the Steelers to a title again this year because of what kind of guy he is.  I don't really want to write that column, though, and I don't have to because Andrew Sharp already did.  I suggest you read it if you're having trouble deciding whom to cheer for on Sunday.  Or if you're a Steelers fan in denial.)

As far as the Packers are concerned, the secret is out.  The overwhelming consensus now is that this truly was a title contender from the get-go but the team suffered enough injuries and lost enough close games that they ended up going 10-6 instead of 13-3 or 14-2, as we touched on in the last blog entry....  That Aaron Rodgers is just a stud, possibly ready to deny the Steelers dynasty status and stake his claim as the league's best quarterback all at the same time....  That they are far more than just Rodgers - look how good that defense was against the Bears, and unsung players continue to step up.  Green Bay has veterans such as Charles Woodson, hungry for his first title; they have young stars like Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, and Tramon Williams; they have nose tackle B.J. Raji up against an unproven Steelers center (Legursky, Pouncey's replacement).  They have running back James Starks, who has suddenly given the Pack a ground game once again (star back Ryan Grant was among those hurt earlier in the year).

But let's be honest, this is about Rodgers.

Come back with me to 2008, will you?

Packers legend Brett Favre was retired.  Green Bay was ready to move on with Rodgers, who had been sitting for three years, and the team had already gone through minicamp workouts and begun training camp with him as their leader and quarterback when....Favre un-retired.  (I am better at un-retiring than he is, I'd like to add.)  He wanted to come back and play again, naturally for the Packers, whose reaction was basically, "Uhhhhhh.....welllll.....umm...really?? Isn't retirement cool and all?  You don't really want to come back, do you?"  The team eventually scheduled a really awkward meeting with Favre, and afterward declared him "mentally unfit to lead this team" or something to that effect.  Packers fans, of course, were outraged.  The team's public stance was basically that they weren't sure he was ready to come back - that maybe his head wasn't in the right place.  And this was a man who had just led them to within a game of the Super Bowl the previous season.  Do you really think that was the reason they didn't want him back?

...and because of this guy, he won't have to.

Of course not.  It's because they knew Rodgers was better.  Green Bay would have happily dumped him and handed the keys back to Favre if they felt otherwise.  Of course they would have.  Why?  Because winning means more than doing the right thing in pro sports, unfortunately.  There are examples of it everywhere.  The Packers said no to the most famous player in their history - again, infuriating their fans in the process - because they knew Rodgers would give them a better chance to win. 

Fast-forward to the present day, and you will see that Rodgers' numbers in his first three seasons as a starter compare quite favorably with those of Favre during the best three seasons of his career (1995-97, when he won three straight MVP awards).  If he can lead this team to victory tomorrow, he will have just as many rings (1) as Favre does, as well.  You might say that Rodgers will have single-handedly buried the Favre era in Wisconsin, and with great authority.  He handled the Favre situation with incredible class, never dissing his predecessor in public or getting upset with the fans who wanted the legend to take his job back.  Instead, Rodgers just went out on the field and became a star.

I watched the Packers-Falcons game three weeks ago with my jaw practically stuck to the floor.  This Green Bay team just reaches another level when they play in a dome - essentially the scenario on Sunday - because they are so much faster and have so many weapons.  Everyone talks about the Steelers defense, and while they do make plays against the pass, they are predominantly a run defense.  The Steelers can be exposed by teams who can spread the field; no one does that better than Green Bay.  This truly is the worst possible matchup this season for Pittsburgh.

Everyone is planting storylines for this one, about how it matches two legendary franchises, two great teams, and two rabid fan bases.  This is already being touted as one of the more exciting games, and they haven't even kicked off yet. 

I'm sorry, but no.  This is about Aaron Rodgers.  Super Bowl XLV will be his official coronation as the league's new star, and if the Steelers can't make a big play on defense, this might not be close.  I just hope someone keeps Aaron away from the Kardashians.  Packers 38, Steelers 28.

Conference Championship Weekend

Alright kids, I'm back.  I'm alive and well and ready to do this.  I have a certain issue that needs to be addressed, and I'm ready to jump back into this thing.  Those of you who follow this blog know that Chicago Bears long-snapper Patrick Mannelly is a friend of mine (more specifically, he is the brother-in-law of my closest friend, Taylor).  His team is playing the rival Green Bay Packers tomorrow for a right to go to the Super Bowl.

Let's back up a bit.  During an engaging back-and-forth on Twitter a couple weeks ago, a writer from Triad Sports Daily (@TSportsDaily) asked me for my Super Bowl prediction.  I tossed out "Packers over Patriots."  I have felt all year that Green Bay was the NFC's best team, and that they just didn't have the record to show for it because they lost too many close games, including a thriller at New England in which quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn't even play, and suffered too many injuries at running back.  As for the Patriots, I felt they were hiding an awful pass defense (30th in the league) all season and that the Packers would expose it, badly (I didn't think the Jets would expose the Pats' passing offense, but more on that later).

So, there ya have it.  I have awkwardly predicted that someone other than Patrick's team will win the Super Bowl.  I suppose I can change it; after all I'm far from perfect overall (5-3, actually), so keep reading.  I feel like this an interesting dilemma, though.  How many wanna-be sports columnists have a chance to predict the outcome of a game featuring someone they know?  Clearly, I don't have to do this.  No one is paying me to write this blog.  But you have to admit, it's fascinating, right?  I can imagine Patrick storming into the Bears locker room and slapping my prediction on a bulletin board and getting his teammates riled up because the Un-Retired Runner thinks the Packers are better.  He probably told Julius Peppers all the bad things I said about him when I was in Chicago last spring and sent Julius down here to kick my ass.  I have stayed awake late every night this week, terrified that I will hear a loud knock on my door, open it, and find an angry Peppers standing there with his arms folded.  I'll say, "Uh, Julius, look, it's not like that, I'm just a fan with an opinion...."  Then he'll slam me into the kitchen counter, stand over me screaming, "Call me lazy and overpaid one more time, mother------!!!!!"  Then bend down and give me the "shush" sign like he did to the Panthers' fans after recovering a fumble in a game earlier this year.

Obviously, that last paragraph was a joke.  Patrick doesn't care what I think about the NFL, unless he's playing in Charlotte and needs to find the nearest Chick-fil-a.  If I want to be writer, I have a job to do: put my head before my heart and declare what I think is going to happen, not what I want to happen.

With that, let's get to the games.  I'm discussing the AFC game first.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers, AFC Championship
I tend to make my picks pretty casually, but I did toss out an inkling that the Steelers would win the title in an earlier post.  Now, let me be the 1, 322nd person to say that Rex Ryan is a genius.  I believe the Jets are not just a team of trash-talkers that want attention; on the other hand, I believe every single thing they do or say has a purpose behind it, and you cannot convince me otherwise.  They talked incessant trash to the Patriots all week, knowing someone would be dumb enough to take the bait.  Surely enough, Wes Welker did, and because Bill Belichick frowns on such things, he was suspended for the Pats' first drive.  What happened on that drive?  The Patriots turned the ball over, something they just haven't done this season.  So, what are the Jets doing this week?  Handing out copious amounts of praise and admiration for the Steelers to the point that it's starting to get awkward.  Various defensive players have compared Ben Roethlisberger to a snow plow, a polar bear, and lord knows what else - because he's big and hard to tackle.

Again, I'm not making these picks for sentimental reasons, and one of the reasons that would favor the Jets is "this just seems like their year," what with all the attention and the Hard Knocks special and what not.  So let's leave that out.  Another reason the Jets could win is the Steelers' offensive line is banged up, but Roethlisberger is at his best when he's forced to evade trouble and make plays on the fly.  That's why he's so good - he's not a Brady or Manning that can be flustered by mixed coverages and can't adjust when there are no receivers open.  Big Ben frequently gets left out of discussions about the league's best quarterbacks, and it's time we put that to an end.  You simply can't game plan for a guy who is actually better when plays break down.  Then there's the Steelers' defense, which has the perfect blend of aging veterans (James Farrior, Larry Foote), guys still in their prime (James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, Ryan Clark, Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden), and young up-and-comers (Ziggy Hood, LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons).  This one is almost too close to call, though.  I don't agree with certain pundits who say the Steelers are too banged up simply because they still have Big Ben, and if this game is close, I trust him more than I trust Sanchez.  Regardless of the fact that the Sanchize has actually played great in the playoffs. Steelers 24, Jets 21.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, NFC Championship
I find it interesting to note that if the Bears do win this game, the special teams units will likely be the reason.  They are simply outstanding in that phase of the game.   We all know about Mannelly and Devin Hester, but the kicking game is solid, too.  As far as Hester goes, it isn't simply the fact that he's capable of breaking one every time, but the fact that he almost always gets a decent enough return to put Jay Cutler and the offense in good field position.  More importantly, the Packers aren't the greatest in this area.  The kicking game is solid, but their coverage units could get them in trouble, and I have a feeling coach Mike McCarthy will be willing to risk kicking to Hester.  Also, Aaron Rodgers isn't going to light up the Bears the way he did the Falcons - not by a long shot.  (1) The Packers offense is better in a dome, where they played last week; (2) the familiarity of having already played a team twice in a season always favor the defense, not the offense; and (3) the Bears defense is just plain better than Atlanta's.  I don't have the slightest idea how the Falcons won 13 games this season, but then again I'm probably a little biased against them, being a Panthers fan and all.

So what about the Packers?  They have a pass-rushing, ball-hawking defense coached by the experienced Dom Capers.  I hope Jay Cutler plays lights-out again, but the look on his face before the game last week scared the crap out of me.  Clearly, he calmed down and played very well against the Seahawks, so hopefully he can do it again.  As you are gathering, I think this game is going to be a defensive battle.  As far as Rodgers is concerned....

You know what?  That's going to have to wait.  I just wrote three glowing paragraphs about Rodgers, detailing his career path to this point, and what the stakes are for him, for the Packers franchise - and yes, for Brett Favre, too.  I looked over everything I had just written and then I cut and pasted those thoughts and stashed them away for future use.  Why?  Because those words aren't appropriate right now.  If Rodgers leads the Packers past the Bears and into the Super Bowl, they will be.  But right now, he has to face a Bears team that has been here before.  This is a group of hungry, experienced veterans that has tasted success without quite making it all the way.  They are playing at home, on that crappy field that clearly favors them more than anyone else who plays there, in front of their fans.  Again, familiarity breeds confidence, and always favors the defense.  If you showed me these two teams as they are and then told me they hadn't played each other yet, I'd go with the Packers.  That's not the case.  Chicago will be ready.  Bears 17, Packers 14.

"But Jason, you said you were going to bet with your head and not your heart!!"

Do you know me?

Sports-related thoughts in my head these days....

As previously discussed, I want this blog to be about all sports, and not just an extended running log.  However I have noticed that for some reason a lot of people seem to be reading it, so I may add in shorter posts of my easy runs, as well - as opposed to only blogging about long runs, workouts, and races.  I also wanted to write a review of what's going on with the Panthers - why they suck, why John Fox will be gone after this year, and what the future may hold - but it's going to take some time because I don't want it to be a brief note that doesn't really say anything.

With that being said, I do have a few sports-related thoughts in my head that I'd be glad to pass along...

• Boy, was I wrong about the Yankees wearing out the Texas Rangers.  It could not have been more the other-way-around.  I think I heard that Texas hit over .300 for the Series.  I knew the Yankees were having problems with their pitching, but I must admit that I didn't think the Rangers were really this good.  But still, the Rays should be in the World Series..
• This post may be ill-timed because the Giants wore him out last night, but I'm really starting to like Cliff Lee.  I read a feature article about him in the USA Today that mentioned how he and his wife were once afraid they could lose their child to leukemia, but the boy is now healthy.  I suppose an experience like that will foster the "eerie calm" for which Lee is so fondly known. 
• As for the Carolina Panthers, the airwaves on WFNZ were buzzing this morning with news that linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis have declared that the team feels they can turn things around and really make a run this season.  Chris McClain and Jim Celania asked for listeners to call in and explain how that could possibly happen.  I didn't call in but here's my two cents:  (1) Right tackle Jeff Otah needs to come back 100% healthy.  Everyone says, "it's not about one man," and it isn't, but right now the offensive line is one of the Panthers' biggest weaknesses, and with Otah back, it can become a strength.  The man is a beast on the right side and his presence could open up the running game, which in turn will (2) further open up the passing game.  David Gettis had a breakout game last week and Brandon LaFell is playing better, too.  If those guys keep it up then we can make opposing teams pay for focusing too much attention on Steve Smith, who (3) needs to be able to continue returning punts because we have to do whatever we can to get him the ball.  (4) Matt Moore needs to play as well as he did at the end of '09 and in last week's game against the 49ers, and (5) it wouldn't hurt if they could get Armanti Edwards more involved, if only to confuse the other team a few times a game.  That may sound like a lot of things, but they are all possible.  The team always plays well later in the season under Fox, and the defense has been solid. 
• When the Pittsburgh Steelers win another Super Bowl this year, they will have a whopping seven in franchise history, two more than the 49ers and Cowboys, who are tied for second.  More importantly, Ben Roethlisberger will have more Super Bowl rings (three) than rape accusations (two).  That can only be a good thing.




Hide ya wife, hide ya kids...and hide your head coaches too because he rapin' everybody up in here.


• Once Game 1 of the Series became one-sided I was able to switch over to the Bulls-Thunder game, the season opener for each team.  Wow, the Thunder are fun to watch!  Others may disagree but I love the chemistry these guys have; it's clear they all get along and the way they always know how to find a teammate on the court is just a treat for the eyes....and then there's Kevin Durant.  'Nuff said.
• I haven't had a chance to watch the Miami Heat yet, but you'll likely know when I do.

That's it for now.