Alright kids, I'm back. I'm alive and well and ready to do this. I have a certain issue that needs to be addressed, and I'm ready to jump back into this thing. Those of you who follow this blog know that Chicago Bears long-snapper Patrick Mannelly is a friend of mine (more specifically, he is the brother-in-law of my closest friend, Taylor). His team is playing the rival Green Bay Packers tomorrow for a right to go to the Super Bowl.
Let's back up a bit. During an engaging back-and-forth on Twitter a couple weeks ago, a writer from Triad Sports Daily (@TSportsDaily) asked me for my Super Bowl prediction. I tossed out "Packers over Patriots." I have felt all year that Green Bay was the NFC's best team, and that they just didn't have the record to show for it because they lost too many close games, including a thriller at New England in which quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn't even play, and suffered too many injuries at running back. As for the Patriots, I felt they were hiding an awful pass defense (30th in the league) all season and that the Packers would expose it, badly (I didn't think the Jets would expose the Pats' passing offense, but more on that later).
So, there ya have it. I have awkwardly predicted that someone other than Patrick's team will win the Super Bowl. I suppose I can change it; after all I'm far from perfect overall (5-3, actually), so keep reading. I feel like this an interesting dilemma, though. How many wanna-be sports columnists have a chance to predict the outcome of a game featuring someone they know? Clearly, I don't have to do this. No one is paying me to write this blog. But you have to admit, it's fascinating, right? I can imagine Patrick storming into the Bears locker room and slapping my prediction on a bulletin board and getting his teammates riled up because the Un-Retired Runner thinks the Packers are better. He probably told Julius Peppers all the bad things I said about him when I was in Chicago last spring and sent Julius down here to kick my ass. I have stayed awake late every night this week, terrified that I will hear a loud knock on my door, open it, and find an angry Peppers standing there with his arms folded. I'll say, "Uh, Julius, look, it's not like that, I'm just a fan with an opinion...." Then he'll slam me into the kitchen counter, stand over me screaming, "Call me lazy and overpaid one more time, mother------!!!!!" Then bend down and give me the "shush" sign like he did to the Panthers' fans after recovering a fumble in a game earlier this year.
Obviously, that last paragraph was a joke. Patrick doesn't care what I think about the NFL, unless he's playing in Charlotte and needs to find the nearest Chick-fil-a. If I want to be writer, I have a job to do: put my head before my heart and declare what I think is going to happen, not what I want to happen.
With that, let's get to the games. I'm discussing the AFC game first.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers, AFC Championship
I tend to make my picks pretty casually, but I did toss out an inkling that the Steelers would win the title in an earlier post. Now, let me be the 1, 322nd person to say that Rex Ryan is a genius. I believe the Jets are not just a team of trash-talkers that want attention; on the other hand, I believe every single thing they do or say has a purpose behind it, and you cannot convince me otherwise. They talked incessant trash to the Patriots all week, knowing someone would be dumb enough to take the bait. Surely enough, Wes Welker did, and because Bill Belichick frowns on such things, he was suspended for the Pats' first drive. What happened on that drive? The Patriots turned the ball over, something they just haven't done this season. So, what are the Jets doing this week? Handing out copious amounts of praise and admiration for the Steelers to the point that it's starting to get awkward. Various defensive players have compared Ben Roethlisberger to a snow plow, a polar bear, and lord knows what else - because he's big and hard to tackle.
Again, I'm not making these picks for sentimental reasons, and one of the reasons that would favor the Jets is "this just seems like their year," what with all the attention and the Hard Knocks special and what not. So let's leave that out. Another reason the Jets could win is the Steelers' offensive line is banged up, but Roethlisberger is at his best when he's forced to evade trouble and make plays on the fly. That's why he's so good - he's not a Brady or Manning that can be flustered by mixed coverages and can't adjust when there are no receivers open. Big Ben frequently gets left out of discussions about the league's best quarterbacks, and it's time we put that to an end. You simply can't game plan for a guy who is actually better when plays break down. Then there's the Steelers' defense, which has the perfect blend of aging veterans (James Farrior, Larry Foote), guys still in their prime (James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, Ryan Clark, Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden), and young up-and-comers (Ziggy Hood, LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons). This one is almost too close to call, though. I don't agree with certain pundits who say the Steelers are too banged up simply because they still have Big Ben, and if this game is close, I trust him more than I trust Sanchez. Regardless of the fact that the Sanchize has actually played great in the playoffs. Steelers 24, Jets 21.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, NFC Championship
I find it interesting to note that if the Bears do win this game, the special teams units will likely be the reason. They are simply outstanding in that phase of the game. We all know about Mannelly and Devin Hester, but the kicking game is solid, too. As far as Hester goes, it isn't simply the fact that he's capable of breaking one every time, but the fact that he almost always gets a decent enough return to put Jay Cutler and the offense in good field position. More importantly, the Packers aren't the greatest in this area. The kicking game is solid, but their coverage units could get them in trouble, and I have a feeling coach Mike McCarthy will be willing to risk kicking to Hester. Also, Aaron Rodgers isn't going to light up the Bears the way he did the Falcons - not by a long shot. (1) The Packers offense is better in a dome, where they played last week; (2) the familiarity of having already played a team twice in a season always favor the defense, not the offense; and (3) the Bears defense is just plain better than Atlanta's. I don't have the slightest idea how the Falcons won 13 games this season, but then again I'm probably a little biased against them, being a Panthers fan and all.
So what about the Packers? They have a pass-rushing, ball-hawking defense coached by the experienced Dom Capers. I hope Jay Cutler plays lights-out again, but the look on his face before the game last week scared the crap out of me. Clearly, he calmed down and played very well against the Seahawks, so hopefully he can do it again. As you are gathering, I think this game is going to be a defensive battle. As far as Rodgers is concerned....
You know what? That's going to have to wait. I just wrote three glowing paragraphs about Rodgers, detailing his career path to this point, and what the stakes are for him, for the Packers franchise - and yes, for Brett Favre, too. I looked over everything I had just written and then I cut and pasted those thoughts and stashed them away for future use. Why? Because those words aren't appropriate right now. If Rodgers leads the Packers past the Bears and into the Super Bowl, they will be. But right now, he has to face a Bears team that has been here before. This is a group of hungry, experienced veterans that has tasted success without quite making it all the way. They are playing at home, on that crappy field that clearly favors them more than anyone else who plays there, in front of their fans. Again, familiarity breeds confidence, and always favors the defense. If you showed me these two teams as they are and then told me they hadn't played each other yet, I'd go with the Packers. That's not the case. Chicago will be ready. Bears 17, Packers 14.
"But Jason, you said you were going to bet with your head and not your heart!!"
Do you know me?
Let's back up a bit. During an engaging back-and-forth on Twitter a couple weeks ago, a writer from Triad Sports Daily (@TSportsDaily) asked me for my Super Bowl prediction. I tossed out "Packers over Patriots." I have felt all year that Green Bay was the NFC's best team, and that they just didn't have the record to show for it because they lost too many close games, including a thriller at New England in which quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn't even play, and suffered too many injuries at running back. As for the Patriots, I felt they were hiding an awful pass defense (30th in the league) all season and that the Packers would expose it, badly (I didn't think the Jets would expose the Pats' passing offense, but more on that later).
So, there ya have it. I have awkwardly predicted that someone other than Patrick's team will win the Super Bowl. I suppose I can change it; after all I'm far from perfect overall (5-3, actually), so keep reading. I feel like this an interesting dilemma, though. How many wanna-be sports columnists have a chance to predict the outcome of a game featuring someone they know? Clearly, I don't have to do this. No one is paying me to write this blog. But you have to admit, it's fascinating, right? I can imagine Patrick storming into the Bears locker room and slapping my prediction on a bulletin board and getting his teammates riled up because the Un-Retired Runner thinks the Packers are better. He probably told Julius Peppers all the bad things I said about him when I was in Chicago last spring and sent Julius down here to kick my ass. I have stayed awake late every night this week, terrified that I will hear a loud knock on my door, open it, and find an angry Peppers standing there with his arms folded. I'll say, "Uh, Julius, look, it's not like that, I'm just a fan with an opinion...." Then he'll slam me into the kitchen counter, stand over me screaming, "Call me lazy and overpaid one more time, mother------!!!!!" Then bend down and give me the "shush" sign like he did to the Panthers' fans after recovering a fumble in a game earlier this year.
Obviously, that last paragraph was a joke. Patrick doesn't care what I think about the NFL, unless he's playing in Charlotte and needs to find the nearest Chick-fil-a. If I want to be writer, I have a job to do: put my head before my heart and declare what I think is going to happen, not what I want to happen.
With that, let's get to the games. I'm discussing the AFC game first.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers, AFC Championship
I tend to make my picks pretty casually, but I did toss out an inkling that the Steelers would win the title in an earlier post. Now, let me be the 1, 322nd person to say that Rex Ryan is a genius. I believe the Jets are not just a team of trash-talkers that want attention; on the other hand, I believe every single thing they do or say has a purpose behind it, and you cannot convince me otherwise. They talked incessant trash to the Patriots all week, knowing someone would be dumb enough to take the bait. Surely enough, Wes Welker did, and because Bill Belichick frowns on such things, he was suspended for the Pats' first drive. What happened on that drive? The Patriots turned the ball over, something they just haven't done this season. So, what are the Jets doing this week? Handing out copious amounts of praise and admiration for the Steelers to the point that it's starting to get awkward. Various defensive players have compared Ben Roethlisberger to a snow plow, a polar bear, and lord knows what else - because he's big and hard to tackle.
Again, I'm not making these picks for sentimental reasons, and one of the reasons that would favor the Jets is "this just seems like their year," what with all the attention and the Hard Knocks special and what not. So let's leave that out. Another reason the Jets could win is the Steelers' offensive line is banged up, but Roethlisberger is at his best when he's forced to evade trouble and make plays on the fly. That's why he's so good - he's not a Brady or Manning that can be flustered by mixed coverages and can't adjust when there are no receivers open. Big Ben frequently gets left out of discussions about the league's best quarterbacks, and it's time we put that to an end. You simply can't game plan for a guy who is actually better when plays break down. Then there's the Steelers' defense, which has the perfect blend of aging veterans (James Farrior, Larry Foote), guys still in their prime (James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, Ryan Clark, Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden), and young up-and-comers (Ziggy Hood, LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons). This one is almost too close to call, though. I don't agree with certain pundits who say the Steelers are too banged up simply because they still have Big Ben, and if this game is close, I trust him more than I trust Sanchez. Regardless of the fact that the Sanchize has actually played great in the playoffs. Steelers 24, Jets 21.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, NFC Championship
I find it interesting to note that if the Bears do win this game, the special teams units will likely be the reason. They are simply outstanding in that phase of the game. We all know about Mannelly and Devin Hester, but the kicking game is solid, too. As far as Hester goes, it isn't simply the fact that he's capable of breaking one every time, but the fact that he almost always gets a decent enough return to put Jay Cutler and the offense in good field position. More importantly, the Packers aren't the greatest in this area. The kicking game is solid, but their coverage units could get them in trouble, and I have a feeling coach Mike McCarthy will be willing to risk kicking to Hester. Also, Aaron Rodgers isn't going to light up the Bears the way he did the Falcons - not by a long shot. (1) The Packers offense is better in a dome, where they played last week; (2) the familiarity of having already played a team twice in a season always favor the defense, not the offense; and (3) the Bears defense is just plain better than Atlanta's. I don't have the slightest idea how the Falcons won 13 games this season, but then again I'm probably a little biased against them, being a Panthers fan and all.
So what about the Packers? They have a pass-rushing, ball-hawking defense coached by the experienced Dom Capers. I hope Jay Cutler plays lights-out again, but the look on his face before the game last week scared the crap out of me. Clearly, he calmed down and played very well against the Seahawks, so hopefully he can do it again. As you are gathering, I think this game is going to be a defensive battle. As far as Rodgers is concerned....
You know what? That's going to have to wait. I just wrote three glowing paragraphs about Rodgers, detailing his career path to this point, and what the stakes are for him, for the Packers franchise - and yes, for Brett Favre, too. I looked over everything I had just written and then I cut and pasted those thoughts and stashed them away for future use. Why? Because those words aren't appropriate right now. If Rodgers leads the Packers past the Bears and into the Super Bowl, they will be. But right now, he has to face a Bears team that has been here before. This is a group of hungry, experienced veterans that has tasted success without quite making it all the way. They are playing at home, on that crappy field that clearly favors them more than anyone else who plays there, in front of their fans. Again, familiarity breeds confidence, and always favors the defense. If you showed me these two teams as they are and then told me they hadn't played each other yet, I'd go with the Packers. That's not the case. Chicago will be ready. Bears 17, Packers 14.
"But Jason, you said you were going to bet with your head and not your heart!!"
Do you know me?
